But then what happens if post-scarcity is realized? In a world where there is more than enough of everything, will we still be taxed on our income or will some other model kick in? Might we see…
- Taxing the machines
- Attention Tax
- No taxation at all
Phil and Stephen discuss the future of taxation. Will the coming years show us more of the same or some new model for separating us from our hard-earned money? Possibilities include: Flat Tax Fair Tax Other Models But then what happens if post-scarcity is realized? In a world where there is more than enough of everything, …View full post
Phil and Stephen discuss the limitations that can most seriously impact the future: Resources — We’ve been warned about these limits many times. Capability — Do we have what it takes? Lifespan — Will we live to see it? People — Well there’s no shortage of those, anyway. (Or is there?) Ideas — Let’s not …View full post
Phil and Stephen take a close look at the reading revolution that is currently taking place. Books are being replaced by electronic devices at a rapid clip. Is this good news or bad news? Some research shows that the electronic approach helps new readers to get more deep into the material. On the other hand, some …View full post
Phil and Stephen discuss two promising, if somewhat offbeat, energy sources: Genetically modified plants Solar power collected in outer space Will our future energy demands be met by trees or a huge reflective strip on the moon? Tune in and explore. Lightning image by Raul Heinrich.View full post
But then what happens if post-scarcity is realized? In a world where there is more than enough of everything, will we still be taxed on our income or will some other model kick in? Might we see…
Resources — We’ve been warned about these limits many times.
Capability — Do we have what it takes?
Lifespan — Will we live to see it?
People — Well there’s no shortage of those, anyway. (Or is there?)
Ideas — Let’s not run out of the Ulitmate Resource.
Freedom — What if we have it all except for the ability to choose?
Will — What if we just stop caring?
Are limitations something we ened to accept or to overcome? Which of these is most likely to impede our progress?
Phil and Stephen take a close look at the reading revolution that is currently taking place. Books are being replaced by electronic devices at a rapid clip. Is this good news or bad news?
Some research shows that the electronic approach helps new readers to get more deep into the material.
On the other hand, some research shows that e-readers are bad for long-term reading comprehension.
So which view is right? And which model is likely to win out?
Phil and Stephen discuss novel solutions to some of the world’s most challenging problems.
Monitoring the wrold’s oceans – with a fleet of drone sailboats.
Treating migraines – with an electronic headband.
Speeding up computers – using the orbits of electrons.
Replacing solar panels – with potted plants.
What other odball solutions might be available to solve our biggest problems?
Phil and Stephen examine life in a world that’s not that far off. Let’s start with where you might wake up. From there we’ll look at where you might work and, if it involves a commute, what that might be like. Weird options abound — everything from what you wear to what kinds of recreational opportunities you enjoy. And what might life by like for the kids?
Football photo by Bernard Gagnon
As we move into the future, is the trend for things to get smaller or bigger? Hosts Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon consider some interesting developments:
So is big the new small or is small the new big? Or is something much more complicated taking place?
(Vintage microscope photo by Roby.)
The Internet revolution is the story of an explosion of information and connectivity. We are all producers and consumers of vastly growing datasets. Our lives and our very identities have to a large extent moved online. Much of who we are is now defined by the intricate and complex connections we have with other individuals, with organizations, and with social structures unlike any that have existed before in human history.
And yet there are many who argue that all of that is prelude, that the real revolution is yet to come. The phenomenon aptly named the Internet of Things describes the growing reach of the online world. The world itself is coming to life, with more and more of what once would have ben called “inanimate” objects producing and consuming information right along with the rest of us.
The year 2014 has been named the Year of the Smart Watch…and the Toothbrush, to name just two of the hundreds or thousands of everyday objects now participating in this endless high-speed exchange of information.
But is this a matter of the Internet moving out into the world or the Internet drawing the world into its realm? What do our growing data footprints and R. Buckminster Fuller’s notion of ephemeralization have to tell us about this tremendous shift? Will we soon live in a world made primarily out of data — or are we already there?
Phil and Stephen review some interesting developments in the world of medicine:
Is technology opening up a new era of abundant health?
Phil and Stephen continue to outline the kinds of radical change we can expect in coming years with a set of transformation scenarios, including:
I just love my new toaster. The rapidly changing relationship between humanity and technology.
All you can eat. The coming era of superabundance.
Let’s slip into something more comfortable. Our growing ability to modify our minds and bodies.
Designer Reality. The do-it-yourself universe found at the convergence of reality, augmented reality, enahnced reality, and virtual reality.
Fantasy Island. The ability to create any subjective experience that we can imagine.
The Ultimate Shortcut. When the difference between thinking about any achievable outcome and actually producing that outcome approaches zero.
(Depiction of Futuristic City by Cronus Caelestis)
Like the Founding Fathers, transhumanists and singularitarians believe that we are subject to an oppressive regime with no legitimate claim on our lives or our futures. Has the time come to declare our independence from a world of pain, scarcity, and limitations?
Phil and Stephen review The Declaration of Singularity.
Practical Time Travel for Beginners, Part 1
To begin with — for the sake of clarity — I want to distinguish my subject from a related topic with which it might easily be confused. So let me be clear from the start that I’m going to be writing about practical time travel, not standard or what I like to call classical time travel.
Now, you may not have realized that there are different varieties of time travel. But trust me — there are different kinds of time travel. At least two. And probably many more than that.
Practical time travel, which is the kind we’ll be exploring in this series of articles, is a methodology for moving through time using resources and abilities that you already possess, or that you can acquire without too much difficulty. It requires first changing your thinking about time and your relationship with it and then quite literally altering how you move through time. It enables you to redefine your past and to choose virtually any destination you can imagine for your future.
It’s time travel, but without the magic or the time machines.
Classical time travel, on the other hand, is what people are generally talking about when they use the term “time travel.” It is above all a compelling idea that makes for wonderful stories and philosophical contemplation.
Classical time travel is what they do in all the time travel books, movies, TV shows, comics, and games. It means moving through time either 1) backward or 2) forward, but much more rapidly than normal. Put more simply, it means traveling into the past or into the future.
Where did such a notion ever come from? You might think that classical time travel is a fairly new idea, that it emerged in the middle of the last century along with crazy ideas like space travel and personal computers. But that’s not the case. H. G. Wells published a short story entitled “The Chronic Argonauts” in 1888. A futurist inspired by emerging technologies such as telecommunication, automobiles, radio, aviation, and mass production, Wells framed time travel as a coming technological development. He wrote his book years before the first heavier-than-air flight or radio broadcast, but he would have been familiar with those concepts and would have thought their realization inevitable. With such wonders on the horizon, why not a machine that could propel a passenger through time the way the way a locomotive moves a train on a track?
In any case, while Wells may have been the first to frame time travel in strictly scientific and technological terms, the idea is not original with him. Not by a long shot.
Perhaps the earliest mention of time travel comes from Hindu mythology. There we read the tale of king Kakudmi, a worried father whose daughter is being pursued by numerous suitors. And I mean numerous. It seems that this young lady is not just an unparalleled hottie, she’s got that special ancient-world je ne sais quoi — that whole Helen of Troy thing. Kakudmi takes the responsibility of rearing such an exceptional offspring seriously, and he wants to be sure that he marries his daughter off to the right dude. Seeking advice in the matter, he takes the extraordinary step of securing a face-to-face with the god Brahma. And this is where it gets weird. Kakudmi discovers that while spending what seemed just a few moments in the god’s company, ages and ages have passed on earth. He travels so far into the future that the landscape has changed and people are noticeably different — they have gotten shorter, and are not as refined and genteel as they once were.
Being accidentally propelled into the future is a trope that has been repeated throughout literary history. An interesting example is Washington Irving’s tale of Rip Van Winkle — a fellow who falls asleep one fine afternoon in the Catskill mountains, after meeting up with some dwarfs who while away their days chugging beer and bowling. Van Winkle dozes off after having perhaps just a bit too much fun and awakens to find that 20 years have passed. Whether one jumps ahead an entire Age of Man (as Kakudmi did) or a couple of decades (as Van Winkle did), what’s always interesting about the future is how much things have changed. Van Winkle falls asleep under the reign of King George and wakes up during the presidential administration of George Washington. His wife is gone; his children are grown. It’s a pretty significant change for a relatively short jump. These two stories and their two very different leaps through time capture what is most interesting about going into the future. Either we want to know how much and in what way the world has changed, or we want to see how much our own world has changed.
Stories about moving backward in time work the same way, with time-travelers visiting (and usually making changes to) a previous historical era or an earlier phase in their own lives. In Ray Bradbury’s short story “A Sound of Thunder,” big-game hunters travel millions of years into the past in order to track and kill dinosaurs. The present is secure from any changes the hunters make as long as they kill only the specific animal they have been told to go after, and as long as everyone stays on a pre-defined path. (Of course, someone steps off the path.) In the movie Back to the Future, Marty McFly travels 30 years into the past and accidentally prevents his parents from meeting — bringing his own existence into jeopardy.
This raises an important point, one that we will return to in some detail later. Most time-travel stories about visiting the past involve making changes to the past, but those changes themselves are not the point. The point of the story is generally how much the present has changed because of whatever was changed in the past. The big pay-offs at the end of both “A Sound of Thunder” and Back to the Future involve time travelers returning to their own eras only to find them fundamentally transformed.
The past is fascinating and a worthy travel destination in its own right, but in these stories the trip to the past serves primarily as a set-up for a trip to the future. (That is, the journey back from the past.) The big-game hunters in “A Sound of Thunder” return to the day they left only to find their world changed in a shocking (and devastating) way. It’s not as dramatic a set of changes as those that Kakudmi observes in his trip to the distant future, but very sweeping nonetheless. Marty McFly returns to the year 1985 to find a world that has been set right, and that is in many ways as different from his original present as Rip Van Winkle’s post-nap world is from his pre-nap world. It’s very telling that the story is entitled “back to the future.” The trip that ultimately matters the most is the one that goes forward in time.
Obviously, classical time travel can provide for an endless supply of fun and thought-provoking stories, but could it ever happen? Is there any way to accomplish classical time travel in real life?
The short answer is…maybe. Some portions of classical time travel seem quite doable; others are a little more iffy. But even if classical time travel is possible, it is far from practical (thus the need for a practical alternative.)
Let’s explore the matter in a little more detail, beginning with the basics. Say you want to travel into the future. Congratulations — you’re doing it! One minute from now you will have moved exactly one minute into the future. But what good is that? It can hardly be called “time travel” (at least in the classical sense) if you don’t get to the future before everybody else. So the question is, is there any way to take a shortcut to the future?
Well, yes. As a matter of fact, there is.
Our universe will permit accelerated movement into the future. This is not just a hypothesis; it has been established through scientific observation. The theory of relativity allows for a phenomenon called time dilation, whereby increases in either gravity or velocity can cause time to “slow down” from the perspective of an observer exposed to the increase. Simply put, if you travel fast enough through space (or are exposed to a sufficiently strong gravitational field), you will move into the future more rapidly than individuals who have not attained the same speed or experienced the same level of gravity.
An astronaut on the International Space Station is traveling at a high velocity, roughly 17,000 miles per hour. However, even a very long exposure to such velocity in space provides only a subtle, measurable-but-not-noticeable, boost in speed through time. An astronaut who spends several months on the ISS will travel a small fraction of a second into the future relative to those of us here on Earth.
What good is a trip a fraction of second into the future? Of course, that’s for the individual time traveler to decide. If you were that astronaut, you would experience arriving at the same moment that everybody else is experiencing back on earth, only having taken a tiny bit less time to get there than everyone else did. There would be no perceptible difference — you would have traveled into the future without experiencing anything out of the ordinary.
If it were me, I would feel cheated. I’m just saying.
So while there are without a doubt many good reasons to spend some time on the ISS if you’re so inclined and if the opportunity presents itself, I personally would not go just for the time travel. Your mileage may vary. Unfortunately, your experience of time dilation won’t vary from what’s predicted by the theory of relativity. That’s the problem.
To be sure, faster and more powerful spacecraft will one day achieve much greater speeds than anything available today. Eventually there will be spaceships that fly so fast they will effectively be timeships, propelling their passengers vast distances through space and at least some moderate distance through time.
Imagine a spacecraft that can travel at 99% of the speed of light, or roughly 40,000 times faster than the ISS. Suppose you took a 10-year trip on such craft. When you returned from the trip, you would be 10 years older. From your point of view, 10 years have passed. But from the point of view of everyone you left behind, 70 years have passed.
Now we’re getting somewhere. The craft you flew in is not only a spaceship, it’s a time machine — one that has propelled you 60 years into the future.
That’s not bad, but it will most likely be decades or longer before we see such craft. And unless things are very different in the future,we will have about as much chance of taking a long trip on one of these vessels as we currently do spending six months on the ISS.
That is to say, not much.
The gravity option is worse. Yes, exposure to a strong gravity field can push you forward in time, but there are a couple of problems:
1. A gravity field strong enough to provide a noticeable time-travel effect is also strong enough to crush you many times over — which takes some of the fun out of the whole experience.
2. In order to get to a body that can provide that kind of gravitational field, you’re going to have to take a long voyage through space, meaning once again that you’re going to need one of those yet-to-be-invented high-powered spacecraft that we were just saying you’ll most likely never get to use.
As it stands today, moving rapidly through space is the most practical and relatively “near-term” method for achieving classical time travel. And, as we have observed, it is neither particularly practical or near-term. Moreover, so far we’re talking about travel into the future in isolation. In most of the really fun time travel stories, movement through time is bi-directional. You travel forward into the future and then take a trip back in to the past to arrive at the original “present” you started from. Or as I mentioned earlier, you travel back in time and then later move ahead into the future, once again to get back to the present. But time dilation only works in one direction. Once you get to the future, you’re there — unless you decide to fire up your rocket and travel even further into the future. But there is no getting back to the present — which wouldn’t be the “present” any more anyway; the present would come along with you on the trip. Your old “present” would now be the past. (Obviously. That’s what always happens to your old present, when you think about it.)
The are other possible ways of traveling through time, methods that may work one day, and that may even provide bi-directional movement through time, but these will require extremely advanced technology to achieve.
Most such models — which unlike time dilation are all theoretical, hypothetical, or otherwise unsubstantiated by any real-world testing or demonstration — rely on the creation of one or more wormholes in space.
Wormholes are theoretical structures that enable instantaneous travel through both space and time. There are no proven ways to create a wormhole, and even their hypothetical construction involves the implementation of technologies so advanced and exotic that they challenge the imagination. I’m confident that such technologies will one day exist, and that eventually we will have true “time machines” in the classical sense of the term. But the challenges that need to be overcome to get us there are many. And big.
Huge, in fact.
And the wait will likely be very long indeed.
On the other hand, the major challenges to Practical Time Travel are conceptual. We need to change our thinking about time. We need to come to a fuller understanding of what time is and what we truly experience when we move through it. That’s where we will pick it up next time.
(Image via Wikimedia Commons.)
I have a secret desire
Hiding deep in my soul
It sets my heart afire
To see me in this role
I wanna be a producer
Lunch at Sardi’s every day
I wanna be a producer
Sport a top hat and a cane
I wanna be a producer
And drive those chorus girls insane!
I wanna be a producer
And sleep until half-past two
I wanna be a producer
And say, “You, you, you, not you”
I wanna be a producer
Wear a tux on op’ning nights!
I wanna be a producer
And see my name in lights!
As discussed on last week’s show, the economy is currently undergoing significant change — little things like the elimination of the office, the elimination of employment as we know it, and maybe (eventually) the elimination or replacement of money itself! These transitions may prove incredibly painful, or just kind of painful. A key driver in making them as easy as possible is technology: the technologies that are turning us all into big-time consumers are advancing to enable us all to become big-time producers.
If we can be the ones independently producing goods or services, we can be participants in (rather than casualties of) massive economic change.
But to leverage such a transition we have to
1. Be aware of it
2. Decide to act on it
2. Carve out a niche for ourselves
3. Start producing
These are big steps for consumers to take! But they may be our best shot at avoiding economic meltdown.
Plus the change may need to occur beyond the economic realm. In order to make real progress in life in an era of accelerating technology / accelerating possibility, we can no longer just be “consumers” of outcomes (realized possibilities) produced by others. We have to start producing outcomes themselves.
We have to start making the future happen!
On this week’s show Will Brown joins Phil and Stephen to discuss how we can be all become “producers.” Don’t miss it!
About Our Guest:
Will Brown is a US Navy veteran who served in the Far East during and after the Vietnam War, followed by employment in the Middle East and Europe. He has worked in a variety of fields (aviation maintenance and assembly, material management and distribution, EMT, security, commercial welder, manufacturing and others) and has found the principles and intellectual assumptions presented in Sun Tzu’s The Art Of War to be relevant and beneficial over the course of his working and personal life. Now approaching age 60, Will looks forward to applying those principles to whatever opportunity life may yet present him. Will blogs at Where There’s A William, where his editorial viewpoint often reflects his interest in classical strategy and an unfortunate taste for low humor and bad puns.
NOTE: Due to Technical Difficulties, this week’s show is postponed one day and will air on Thursday.
The world really is changing in ways that are difficult to predict, sometimes even difficult to imagine. Phil and Stephen list some powerful transformations that are underway that will pretty much change everything — forever:
How strange can things get? Tune in and find out.
Sure we all want to live to see it, but how long will that take? How long do we want to live, how healthy do we want to be while doing it, and what are we prepared to do to bring those outcomes about?
Phil and Stephen welcome Christine Peterson to discuss her upcoming Personalized Life Extension conference and her new book, 17 Tactics for Health, Longevity, and Brain Fitness.
Christine will share the latest insights on how to:
Starting later this week, the most recent Personalized Health Conference Series will be available online at no charge via Christine’s new site, Healthactivator.com. That’s 10 Days of the latest groundbreaking information in optimized health, longevity and brain fitness brought to you by the expert.
World Transformed listeners are eligible for a $50 discount on registration for the upcoming online conference. Just go to healthactivator.com and use our special code TRANSFORMED when registering.
About Our Guest
Christine Peterson is a visionary and pioneer, a true transformer of the world. She writes, lectures, and briefs the media on coming powerful technologies, especially nanotechnology and life extension. She is Co-Founder and Past President of Foresight Institute, chair of the Personalized Life Extension Conference series, and the driving force behind healthactivator.com. She is also a pioneer in the open source software movement and the coiner of the term “open source.”
Psychological research indicates that it’s not easy for people to grasp how much they are going to change over time. A recent New York Times piece explores this phenomenon:
When we remember our past selves, they seem quite different. We know how much our personalities and tastes have changed over the years. But when we look ahead, somehow we expect ourselves to stay the same, a team of psychologists said Thursday, describing research they conducted of people’s self-perceptions.
They called this phenomenon the “end of history illusion,” in which people tend to “underestimate how much they will change in the future.” According to their research, which involved more than 19,000 people ages 18 to 68, the illusion persists from teenage years into retirement.
“Middle-aged people — like me — often look back on our teenage selves with some mixture of amusement and chagrin,” said one of the authors, Daniel T. Gilbert, a psychologist at Harvard. “What we never seem to realize is that our future selves will look back and think the very same thing about us. At every age we think we’re having the last laugh, and at every age we’re wrong.”
Look back at yourself 5, 10, 20, or 30 years ago — or if you have the perspective to do so, 40 or 50 years ago — and ask yourself the following questions:
Most people will identify a number of substantial differences between their current and past lives. According to the research, we can expect the same level of change over the next span of the same period. In other words, 20 years from now your life (and you personally) are likely to be as different from you as you are from the you of 20 years ago.
Apparently, we are naturally resistant to that idea. There are advantages to such resistance, of course. It would be difficult to make plans or deal with difficult decisions if we were constantly reminding ourselves that we will probably look at this whole situation very differently in the future. Some part of success in life requires assuming a stasis that isn’t really there.
On the other hand, failing to get a handle on how different our lives will be, and how different we will be, exposes us to certain risks and prevents us from leverage any number of opportunities. This would be true even if our lives were changing in a world that was itself pretty much static, but that is far from the case. Technological and social change are taking place at an unprecedented and accelerating rate. Somehow we need to get a handle on future versions of ourselves living in a very different future world.
That’s right. Be a futurist. As the Great Criswell put it in Plan 9 from Outer Space, “We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.” But it’s not easy to do. As Yoda was quick to point out in The Empire Strikes Back, “Difficult to see…always in motion, the future is.”
The trick here is not so much to predict what’s going to happen as to start to get comfortable with what could happen. One helpful technique to support this kind of thinking is the scenario — a brief story or vignette that ties several possibilities together into a quick snapshot of the future. The definitive book on using scenarios for planning is The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz. I can’t recommend that book highly enough, but its focus is more organizational and institutional than personal. For personal scenario development, I recommend becoming pen-pals with your future self.
To begin, write a letter to your future self giving a quick glimpse of your life as it is now. I use futureme.org to do this. You can write a note to yourself in the future, set the send date, and voila! — a note from past you shows up in your inbox right on schedule. I got a note from 2006 Phil a while back, and it was quite an eye-opener, I can tell you. It’s amazing how much things change over the course of a five or six years. Try to send one or two of these messages each year. Mix it up. Send some messages 10 years out, others just two or three. This will be very helpful to Future You who over time will get a clearer and clearer idea of how much change he or she should be expecting in the years to come.
The only real problem with being pen-pals with Future Me is that he does not have a way (yet) of sending messages back to Present Me (any more than I can send messages to Past Me.) Writing to yourself in the future is a form of Practical Time Travel and, as I have explained previously, the practical approaches to time travel involve movement in only one direction. Forward. So to keep the correspondence going, I have to do Future Me’s letter-writing on his behalf.
Letters written to your present self from your imagined future self will be the very scenarios mentioned above, the ones that will help you to get a better handle on who you will be in the future. Here are some tips on how to compose a letter from the future.
1. Consider Likely / Possible Changes in Technology and Society
Imagine how day-to-day life will be different in a few years. If you can’t begin to, start with some of the big differences between day-to-day life a few years ago and now and project those forward. While it’s true — as they say in the mutual fund ads — that past performance is no guarantee of future results, such an exercise is a great start towards visualizing the future. Here are a few safe bets:
Those are all changes I have personally experienced over the past 25 years and that I expect to experience again over the next 25. But stated in such broad and sweeping terms, they don’t hit home.
Technology embedded in your daily experience? Imagine spending more time each day talking to your computer than you do to most other people. Imagine looking at the world 24/7 through glasses (or contacts) that provide an ongoing overlay of information — news updates, messages, location- or context-sensitive information — a live feed not unlike the nonstop crawl at the bottom of the screen on news channels.
Machines doing tasks that you normally perform? Think self-driving cars. Think robo-butler clearing the table. Think Siri 5.0 taking most of your calls for you — with the callers never even realizing they weren’t talking to you.
Interacting with people you don’t know via channels that don’t exist? Consider how transformative Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter have been. Now project that forward. What form does it take? (Sorry, you have to do this one on your own.)
From there, I would add the following as real possibilities:
Anyway, that’s my assessment of where things will end up. Do you disagree? Good. Now do your own assessment. Just be aware of the causes and drivers that underlie any big changes you come up with.
Okay, now you have a good start on how different your world will be. Let’s take that next step.
2. Consider Possible Changes to You, Your Preferences, Your Circumstances
This goes to the heart of the mental block mentioned above. The exercises listed below can you help you get a handle on how different you and your life might be in the future.
NOTE: These are not plans. These are not presented as things you should want to have happen. They are intended to help you expand your thinking around what could happen.
3. Compose your letter
Pick a few of the elements from the first list and a few from the second and combine them into brief letter to yourself. Something like this:
Dear Past Self –
I am writing to you from the Magic City, sitting in my study that overlooks the meandering Yellowstone river here in beautiful Billings Montana. I moved here a few years ago after the last of the kids went away to college. This seemed the ideal place to begin seriously pursuing my work as a painter, and I am pleased to say that I’ve been going through a highly productive period. Betsy and I are still happily married, although living apart as she has remained in Phoenix. We hardly notice the separation, thanks to the full-immersion virtual presence service we use. The big upside is that our sex life has improved immensely (although I’m not supposed to say that.) Plus we now have plenty of personal space. I don’t think my interest in meditation is one she particularly shares, even though she was completely supportive when I was in rehab after the rock-climbing accident. It’s funny: I never really pictured myself as a rock-climber, but if I hadn’t taken that fall, I never would have started meditating and never would have realized that I’m really an artist. Now thanks to the full spinal repairs the doctors were able to perform using stem cells they made from some cells scraped from my tongue, I’m completely recovered. Better than ever, actually. Still, with all the great rock-climbing available here in Montana, I think I’ll just stick to painting.
Well, that’s all for now. Good luck getting here, and be careful on the rocks!
Your Future Self
A few notes about the letter:
When you have finished, send your future letter to your real future self. Down the road, it will be interesting to see if some of it, even some of the more outrageous stuff, actually comes true. The take a few more possibilities and compose a completely different letter from a completely different future you. After you have written five or six such letters, you will have a much better feel for hoe truly different the world and your life will be in the future, even if you get all of the details wrong — which you most certainly will.
Wired published a recent story about the take-over of robots – our jobs will, it argues, be mostly taken by robots.
Its hard arguing with the premise. Robots are improving exponentially, humans… not so much.
After robots finish replacing assembly line workers, they will replace the workers in warehouses. Speedy bots able to lift 150 pounds all day long will retrieve boxes, sort them, and load them onto trucks. Fruit and vegetable picking will continue to be robotized until no humans pick outside of specialty farms. Pharmacies will feature a single pill-dispensing robot in the back while the pharmacists focus on patient consulting.
I think Wired might be overly optimistic about the pharmacists. Why would a pharmacist be better at patient consulting than an AI? The Jeopardy-playing Watson AI is being trained in cancer medicine and will, no doubt, be a better diagnostician than Dr. House someday. Why would it not also be a better consulting pharmacist?
In fact, the last job people will ever do will be to give a human face to the AIs.
So that’s it: unemployed, or if lucky… getting a job repeating whatever a computer says. Forever. Pretty bleak, huh?
Fortunately when things change, more than one thing changes. Humanity has been pretty static in its intellectual development for… quite some time. But that is changing too.
We already live in a world where we operate as people much smarter than we, biologically, have any right to be. If you’re over 35 you remember a time when ignorance was a little more permanent. Because how much library time could a busy life accommodate?
I claim Google as a part of my brain. It was a joke seven years ago when it was just my home and work computer I was talking about. It’s much less of a joke today with smartphones. The relationship between us and our technology grows more intimate over time. Today its smartphones, tomorrow… well, Google is testing glasses that overlay data on the entire world.
A little further ahead our consulting AI pharmacist will buff up our biological intelligence, while engineers – AI and enhanced humans alike – build better and better bridges between us and our technology. The bridges will grow in number and quality until the line between us is blurred to meaninglessness.