Phil and Stephen discuss the timing of the Technological Singularity:
…a hypothetical moment in time when artificial intelligence will have progressed to the point of a greater-than-human intelligence, radically changing civilization, and perhaps human nature.Since the capabilities of such an intelligence may be difficult for a human to comprehend, the technological singularity is often seen as an occurrence (akin to a gravitational singularity) beyond which the future course of human history is unpredictable or even unfathomable.
If it is going to happen, one of the critical questions is when. Ramez Naam has recently suggested that it probably won’t be any time soon. But William Hertling says don’t be too sure — it could happen a lot faster than we think.
Who’s right? Is the Singularity near?